A vital component of any effective and successful pavement management system is the ability to classify the sections as “good”, “moderate” and “poor” and then forecast the remaining pavement life in order to create a timely and accurate treatment intervention programme and thus reducing maintenance cost. Pavement sections classification and prediction models are normally based on an Index parameter known as Pavement Condition Index (PCI). The PCI is measured by evaluating the extent and severity of various surface distresses like cracks, rut depths, potholes, patch, texture etc. The reduction of PCI is thus an indication of pavement deterioration or improvement of PCI is an indication of any rehabilitation works is undertaken. The reviewed literature showed that pavement performance prediction models are either single or dual distresses based or only related to the reduction of PCI with age of pavement.
This paper presents the development of a network level deterministic deterioration models for flexible pavement on two classes of roads, arterial and collector, located in four climatic zones. The proposed models utilize all of the influencing parameters that affect pavement performance. The utilized parameters are a) distress (area and length of cracks), b) pavement age, c) traffic loading, d) maintenance effects, d) climatic effects and e) construction and material properties. The model performance is compared against the prediction model derived by the linear deterioration model in the Micro-PAVER system, which is based purely on the age of pavement.
The historical data of condition assessment in the Long-term Pavement Performance Database (LTPP) are employed to develop a deterioration trend in pavement condition index (PCI). For each climatic zones, deterioration models are developed and then cross validated with a seperate data set for different functional class of road considering different constructions and materials used within the flexible pavement. The validation outcomes showed that the accuracy of empirical models for arterial roads is better than for collector roads in all climatic zones. These models have a significant potential to estimate the future performance of flexible pavements, resulting in timely and cost-effective maintenance and rehabilitation decisions.
تاريخ النشر
10/01/2015
الناشر
“DAWG” Forum on Pavement Performance Data Analysis, TRB’S 94th ANNUAL MEETING,WASHINGTON, DC.
ماهر شاكر محمود | MAHER SHAKIR MAHMOOD | 3427