عنوان المقالة:العلاقة الديناميكية بين سعر الصرف والميزان التجاري العراقي: دراسة قياسية Dynamic relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance Iraq: An Empirical Study
أظهرت نتائج اختبار سببية كرانجر وجود علاقة من اتجاهين الاولى من سعر الصرف الى الميزان التجاري والثانية من الميزان التجاري الى سعر الصرف
Abstract
The results of the dynamic relationship between the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar in the parallel market and the Iraqi trade balance using the test unit root contain time-series data for the variables on the root of the unit and are therefore not stable over time, the general level while becoming this data is stable when taking first differences by Dickey Fuller expanded testing Phelps - Byron suggesting that these time series variables integrated first-class ] I (1)[ . This was followed by subjecting the variables to test the integration of common manner Johansen which proved through experiential impact (Trace) and the maximum value (Max), as proved this test is that there is a relationship with the integration of joint venture between the exchange rate and the trade balance Iraqi, showed test results Kranger of causality that there is a causal relationship of directional first of moving the exchange rate to the trade balance of the Iraqi and the second heading of the trade balance to the exchange rate.
د. فيصل غازي فيصل | Dr. Faisal Ghazi Faisal | 5671